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Conditional expectation

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Summary

For an integrable random variable and a sub-σ\sigma-algebra, the almost-surely unique measurable random variable whose integral over every event in that sub-σ\sigma-algebra agrees with the original variable's integral.

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Filtered probability spaceConditional expectation

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Authored explanation

At each stage of a filtration, conditional expectation projects an integrable random variable onto the information represented by the corresponding sub-σ\sigma-algebra.

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The target represents a state, property, observable, or state-dependent description associated with the source system or theory.

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Random variableConditional expectation

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Authored explanation

Conditional expectation is another random variable determined from the original one and the conditioning information, not generally a pointwise average over outcomes.

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The target represents a state, property, observable, or state-dependent description associated with the source system or theory.

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